# Author: John Allen Paulos
# Hardcover: 224 pages
# Publisher: Basic Books (May 13, 2003)
# Language: English
# ISBN-10: 0465054803
# ISBN-13: 978-1567318289
# Format: PDF | 9MB
We like to think not only that mathematicians are smarter than the rest of us but that by dint of their mastery of numbers, they hold the key to understanding the baffling mysteries of the universe. Alas, Paulos (Innumeracy) says that's not always the case. As the author relates in this funny, insightful little volume about attempts to bring order and science to the free-for-all that is the stock market, he himself was once a big investor (in WorldCom). Despite strong evidence to sell, he desperately hung on to his stock as the price plummeted, proving that a head for numbers doesn't always translate to Wall Street know-how.
Through most of this book, Paulos discusses various methods for predicting markets and offers thoughts on why people keep trying to perfect them. Shocking in their obtuseness are the so-called Elliot Wave followers, who believe stocks operate according to an impossibly arcane series of numerical waves and cycles.
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Thursday, July 3, 2008
A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market by John Allen Paulos
Friday, June 27, 2008
The Mathematics of Banking and Finance by Dennis Cox, Michael Cox
# Author: Dennis Cox, Michael Cox
# Hardcover: 310 pages
# Publisher: Wiley (May 23, 2006)
# Language: English
# ISBN-10: 047001489X
# ISBN-13: 978-0470014899
# Format: PDF | 1.9MB
The world of business has changed significantly in recent years. Why? Because business has increasingly made more use of the probability, statistical methods and analytic techniques in areas where they previously were not used at all.
You may feel rather uncomfortable about all of this. Perhaps you gave up mathematics, wondering what the relevance of the subject really was. Others may just need to be reminded what some of the techniques actually mean.
Mathematics of Banking takes the type of techniques that you may come across in the developing world of banking, including operational risk, and explains when the techniques could be used and what if any limitations there are to these techniques.
The book offers an intermediate guide to the various techniques used in the industry, and a consideration of how each one should be approached. Written in a practical style, it will enable readers to quickly appreciate the purpose of the techniques and, through illustrations, see how they can be applied in practice. Coverage is extensive and includes techniques such as VaR analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, extreme value theory, variance and many other important models.
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Thursday, June 26, 2008
Probability and Random Processes by Geoffrey R. Grimmett, David R. Stirzaker
Geoffrey R. Grimmett, David R. Stirzaker | Oxford University Press, USA | 2001-08-02 | ISBN: 0198572220 | 608 pages | PDF | 3.5 MB
This book gives an introduction to probability and its many practical application by providing a thorough, entertaining account of basic probability and important random processes, covering a range of important topics. Emphasis is on modelling rather than abstraction and there are new sections on sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo, renewal-reward, queueing networks, stochastic calculus, and option pricing in the Black-Scholes model for financial markets. In addition, there are almost 400 exercises and problems relevant to the material. Solutions can be found in One Thousand Exercises in Probability.
About the Author
Geoffrey Grimmett is at Statistical Laboratory, University of Cambridge. David Stirzaker is at Mathematical Institute, Oxford University.
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Friday, May 9, 2008
Prediction, Learning, and Games
Prediction, Learning, and Games
Cambridge University Press | 0521841089 | 2006 | PDF | 406p | 2MB | RS | FF
This important new text and reference for researchers and students in machine learning, game theory, statistics and information theory offers the first comprehensive treatment of the problem of predicting individual sequences. Unlike standard statistical approaches to forecasting, prediction of individual sequences does not impose any probabilistic assumption on the data-generating mechanism. Yet, prediction algorithms can be constructed that work well for all possible sequences, in the sense that their performance is always nearly as good as the best forecasting strategy in a given reference class. The central theme is the model of prediction using expert advice, a general framework within which many related problems can be cast and discussed. Repeated game playing, adaptive data compression, sequential investment in the stock market, sequential pattern analysis, and several other problems are viewed as instances of the experts' framework and analyzed from a common nonstochastic standpoint that often reveals new and intriguing connections. Old and new forecasting methods are described in a mathematically precise way in order to characterize their theoretical limitations and possibilities.
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Bradley, Donald - Stock Market Prediction
Bradley, Donald - Stock Market Prediction
This book try to figure how planetary aspects affecting stock market trends.Show how to chart the dates and relative strenghs of planetary aspects affecting the fundamental market conditions - and how these aspects should be interpreted as terms of stock market trends.
This book also shows how future planetary cycles may be charted as guides to personal and business activity.
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